Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 14.860803 18.097528 21.686603 25.936174 30.804145 36.180094 42.538843
2025-10-26 10.421029 14.659185 19.867747 26.626157 35.042821 45.056568 57.738565
2025-11-02 7.565608 12.022063 17.980381 26.283596 37.288529 51.099071 69.436023
2025-11-09 5.840971 10.346823 16.827873 26.412473 39.767707 57.239698 81.286965
2025-11-16 4.541774 8.934710 15.702803 26.266283 41.648578 62.504508 92.090524
2025-11-23 3.456411 7.575355 14.374635 25.556720 42.531362 66.318070 100.999786
2025-11-30 2.912412 6.996605 14.135277 26.379672 45.583424 73.185766 114.276278
2025-12-07 2.289148 6.106998 13.219264 25.986633 46.714735 77.306216 123.829909
2025-12-14 1.883968 5.540012 12.755525 26.237936 48.788589 82.824288 135.520325
2025-12-21 1.396354 4.644879 11.528410 25.021932 48.391472 84.585295 141.774735
2025-12-28 1.189083 4.343052 11.386003 25.675037 51.036294 91.023731 155.095057
2026-01-04 0.993753 4.008781 11.117611 26.051403 53.211945 96.796912 167.589411
2026-01-11 0.815807 3.680286 10.848445 26.477736 55.641395 103.303593 181.809732
2026-01-18 0.684379 3.442887 10.746290 27.227589 58.705995 111.002218 198.221641
2026-01-25 0.521982 3.025074 10.138842 26.882248 59.769762 115.482141 209.772613
2026-02-01 0.413474 2.739039 9.789140 27.013607 61.681336 121.401868 223.748152
2026-02-08 0.317370 2.440490 9.339207 26.864857 63.034625 126.412982 236.406183
2026-02-15 0.226960 2.093920 8.672614 26.142761 63.219935 129.417840 245.896316
2026-02-22 0.191185 1.994467 8.691338 26.980244 66.475310 137.808041 264.380693
2026-03-01 0.138891 1.749409 8.210664 26.580278 67.237186 141.865085 275.843451
2026-03-08 0.108126 1.605743 8.013446 26.836012 69.322932 148.314658 291.438509
2026-03-15 0.067595 1.321781 7.260122 25.598473 68.234816 149.027611 297.416544
2026-03-22 0.054562 1.252291 7.247525 26.263173 71.167313 157.104932 316.055712